February 4, 2004

China's Soybean Imports To Fall In February

China's soybean imports is forecast to fall in February due to poor crush margins, local traders in China said Tuesday.

Crush margins in China have been consistently poor. For processing one metric ton of imported soybeans, margins in the coastal regions range between negative 80-100 yuan ($1=CNY8.277) a metric ton, traders said.

In February, about 20 to 22 cargoes of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in China, as the burden of negative processing margins forced some buyers to cancel or delay the shipment of soybeans, traders said.

February's imports are likely to be only half the number that arrived in January, or just slightly higher, a trader from China National Cereals Oils and Foodstuff Import & Export Corp, or Cofco, said Tuesday.

In January, about 38 cargoes of imported soybeans arrived at the ports in China, higher than the previous estimates of industry participants, a trader tracking the shipment said Monday.

Since late last year, local soymeal markets have remained depressed due to low demand from local livestock and feedstuff producers.

Large Chinese crushers managed to hold soymeal prices at levels seen before Spring Festival, but widespread concerns over bird flu weighed on the soymeal markets, traders said.

China has changed the shipment date of more than 1.00 million tons of U.S. soybeans from 2003-04 marketing year (October-September) to 2004-05, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a January export sales report.