February 4, 2004

 

 

Brazil 2003-04 Soy Production Estimates Up To 58.9 Million MT

 

Brazilian soybean production in the 2003-04 season (October-September) will reach 58.9 million metric tons, the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, or Abiove, said Tuesday.

 

The group raised its estimate by 800,000 tons compared with December. The crop is now seen 14.1% higher than the 51.6 million tons produced last season, an estimate raised by 400,000 tons on December.

 

Abiove's fourth estimate for the coming crop, the harvesting of which has started in the center-west, is now in line with the government's official figure of 58.8 million tons.

 

The extra soybeans will be added to end-of-year stocks, which are now forecast at 2.29 million tons from 994,000 tons in December, according to Abiove.

 

Brazilian crushers will process 31.5 million tons in the 2004-05 marketing season (February-January), up 11.7% from an estimated 28.2 million tons this season.

 

The soybean export estimate for 2004-05 was maintained at 25.2 million tons, up 22.9% from the 20.5 million tons seen shipped in 2003-04.

 

The 2003-04 export figure was lowered from 21.0 million tons in December to reflect lower-than-expected physical shipments last year.

 

Soymeal production is seen reaching 24.5 million tons this year, up 11.4% from 22.0 million tons last year. Meal exports are seen rising to 16.4 million tons, up 16.3% from 14.1 million tons the year before.

 

Stocks at the end of the 2003-04 season and the 2004-05 season are seen totaling 822,000 tons, up from 622,000 tons in the December report.

 

Soyoil production is seen totaling 5.9 million tons in 2004-05, up 10.2% from 5.35 million tons last year. Exports will reach 2.8 million tons, up from 2.4 million tons last year.

 

Crushing activities slowed in December as Brazil moved deep into its interharvest period.

 

In December, soybean crushing totaled 1.745 million tons, down from the 2.041 million tons processed in November and also lower than last December's total of 1.831 million tons.

 

Crushing in the February-December period totaled 23.45 million tons, well down on the 28.2 million tons forecast for the 2003-04 marketing year (February-January).

 

Soymeal production reached 1.342 million tons in December, down from 1.570 million tons in November.

 

February-December soymeal production totaled 18.03 million tons, shy of the 22.0-million-ton estimate for 2003-04.

 

Production is expected to rise to 24.5 million tons next year.

 

Soymeal exports last month reached 908,000 tons, down slightly from 1.069 million tons the month before.

 

Soyoil production reached 337,000 tons in December, down from 397,000 tons in November.

 

The crushers forecast 2004 soy complex exports should reach a new record, totaling $11.23 billion, up from $8.12 billion in 2003.