February 3, 2012

Global cotton prices stable at US$1/pound

After sliding for almost 10 months, the prices of cotton worldwide have steadied at around US$1 per pound in January 2012, reported the International Cotton Advisory Committee.

The main reasons behind this price stabilisation seem to be the support provided by the Chinese government, via significant purchases from both the domestic and the foreign markets, and an improvement in demand for cotton.

However, the medium-term outlook regarding world cotton mill use is still overcast. World economic growth is projected to slow in 2012. World cotton mill use is projected down by 3% in 2011/12 to 23.7 million tons. It could resume increasing in 2012/13 if the health of global economy improves.

Global cotton production is rising by an estimated 7% in 2011/12, to 26.8 million tons. This would be the largest level of production achieved in five years. However, global production could drop to 24.9 million tons in 2012/13 due to the lower prices received by farmers this season, improving attractiveness of grains and soy, and rising agricultural production costs.

As a result of the large excess supplies in 2011/12, global cotton stocks are rebounding by a third to 12.3 million tons, following two seasons at relatively tight levels. Production is expected to continue exceeding consumption in 2012/13, which could translate into further increase in global cotton stocks, to 12.9 million tonnes.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) is an association of governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology.