February 3, 2011

 

Brazil's soy belt up for heavier rain over weekend

 

 

A cold front active off Brazil's southern coast will bring rain to its main soy states over the next five days, after the main growing areas closed January with ample rainfall, Somar predicted Wednesday (Feb 2).

 

Producers are beginning early harvest of short cycle beans in a handful of regions in No. 1 soy producer state Mato Grosso and No. 2 Parana, but widespread harvesting will not get underway in these early harvest states until March-April.

 

Despite the regular moisture over most of the main soy belt, rains have been interspersed with sunny days, which has allowed producers to harvest early maturing fields and to spray fields that are still weeks or months away from harvest.

 

Plants need a good number of sunny days each week to shift photosynthesis into high gear for bean formation. Dry periods also allow farmers to spray for Asian rust.

 

The bulk of the soy belt was getting ample rain exactly at the critical point when plants need moisture to assure that pods get filled.

 

The test will be over the next month, analysts say, when rains will need to let up to allow beans to mature and dry so harvest can start on what looks to be a bumper crop.

 

No. 2 soy state Parana in the south will get 54 millimetres over the next five days, after getting 22 mm over the past three days. The state has gotten excellent rains this season and should producer a bumper crop.

 

No. 3 soy state Rio Grande do Sul, also in the south, will get between 21 mm and 51 mm, after getting 5 mm-9 mm over the past few days.

 

Fields in the No. 1 soy state Mato Grosso are set to get 42 mm and 50 mm over the next five days, after 6 mm fell over the past few days.

 

January registered good rains for most of the soy belt, after December produced near normal rains as well.

 

The 10-day forecast sees rain intensifying in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso between February 6-10. Mato Grosso is not so hard pressed for rain at this point but Rio Grande do Sul can use the extra moisture.

 

Below is a table showing total rainfall in millimetres for January and for February 1 compared with the five-year average for the full month for main soy producing states.