February 3, 2006

Brazil expects to harvest 83.9 million tonnes soybean in 2014
 

Brazil will surpass the US as the world's top soy producer in 2014, when soy growers should harvest 83.9 million tonnes of soy, according to a study released Thursday by Brazil's Agriculture Ministry.

Elisio Contini, head of strategic planning at the Agriculture Ministry, said he expected world soy production to hit 305 million tonnes in 2014-15. In 2014, the US share of the world soybean market is expected to fall to 29 percent from 48 percent currently, with Brazil's share rising to 37 percent from roughly 22 percent.

Currently, Brazil, Argentina and the US produce 75 percent of the world's soybeans.

Contini told reporters in Brasilia that domestic consumption would be 51 million tonnes annually beginning in 2014, with exports doubling to 31.7 million tonnes by that time, 54.6 percent more than Brazil exported in 2005.

According to industry data, Brazil consumed roughly 13 million tonnes of soymeal and soy oil in 2005. The government bases its 2014 expansion on growth in livestock feed demand for hogs and poultry.

Soy expansion of that magnitude, however, will require expansion of farmland. Brazilian soy growers reduced their planted area by roughly 1.5 million hectares in the 2005/06 crop to 22 million hectares.

Brazil is expecting to harvest between 57.4 million and 58.5 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2005/06 crop, according to government estimates released in December. In 2004/05, Brazil harvested 51 million tonnes of soybeans.

Although Brazil has an ambitious biodiesel programme on the table, which will require a 2 percent mix of biofuels in all diesel fuel by 2008, soy's expansion is not due to that programme, according to Contini. The government expects advances in crop technology and farmland expansion to lead to higher soy production.

Contini led a press conference in Brasilia Thursday to present the Agriculture Ministry's strategic plan for 2007 to 2015. The report examines various agricultural scenarios in Brazil going forward, considering the main trends of population growth, economic growth in emerging markets, biotechnology and environmental policy. The report stated that the soft commodities slated for growth were beef and poultry, soy, sugar, sugar cane alcohol--or ethanol--and forest products.

"The idea of the report is to guide the ministry on the demands of an expanding agr-ibusiness sector," Contini said in a press statement Thursday.