February 2, 2006
Climatologist predicts good 2005/06 soy crop for Argentina
Argentina's farmers will produce a healthy 2005/06 soybean crop, Estella Carballo, a climatologist at the National Institute of Climate and Water, forecast Wednesday.
"I think we're going to have a very good soybean crop," Carballo said. "The country is getting the rain it needs. Soybeans that need rain are getting it now and it is going to rain today in the areas that need it most."
Farmers had planted 98.4 percent of the crop by Saturday, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported earlier this week.
The Exchange expects farmers to plant a record 15.62 million hectares of soy this season, up from 14.67 million hectares a year earlier. As of Saturday they had sown 15.364 million hectares.
The US Department of Agriculture has forecast Argentina's 2005/06 soybean output at a record 40.5 million tonnes, compared with the previous record of 39 million tonnes a year ago.
There was a lot of concern in early January that the 2005/06 crop would suffer major yield losses because of a drought that had persisted through much of the planting season. However, Carballo said that the crop received a lot of rain in January and that forecasts call for more rain through Tuesday of next week.
"Today (Wednesday) it rained again in southern Cordoba, where more moisture was needed," she said. "It also rained in western Buenos Aires. The amount of rainfall has been very disparate, but it all adds up and it's all good."
Carballo also noted that it has not been as hot as many had forecast for this time of the year. In addition, she said recent precipitation has been completely absorbed by plants and soil, meaning there is no risk of flooding.
Meanwhile, she dismissed suggestions that Argentina has been affected by a weather pattern known as La Nina, which is the exact opposite of a better-known phenomenon called El Nino that brings periods of above-normal temperatures.
Argentine soybeans are normally harvested from March through July.
