February 2, 2004

Brazil 2003-04 Soy Crop Up 14.5%

The Brazilian Census Bureau, or IBGE, forecast Friday the 2003-04 soybean crop (October-September) would total 58.95 million metric tons, up 14.5% on the year before.

The institute's third forecast for the current crop is in line with the Agriculture Ministry estimate of 58.8 million tons, issued last month, and close to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of 60 million tons.

The new estimate was raised from the 58.66 million tons forecast in December at a time when concerns are growing that dry weather in the south was hurting yield potential.

In a press release, IBGE said the growth in soy production was due to high international prices on high demand, principally from Asia.

Main corn crop production is seen dropping to 33.80 million tons this season (September-August), down 2.8% from last year.

The estimate was raised slightly from 33.74 million tons in the December report.

IBGE said the drop in crop potential is due to low returns on investment in this crop compared with soybeans.

Brazil's grain, oilseed and cereal crop is expected to reach 132.2 million tons next year, some 7.3% higher on 2003 levels.

Seed cotton production was pegged to jump to 1.88 million tons in 2003-04, up 32% from the 1.43 million tons produced last year.

IBGE said the expansion in cotton production was due to high profitability at current prices.