February 1, 2011

 

Ample rain to benefit Argentina's, Brazil's crops

 

 

Rains forecast for corn and soy producing Argentina and Brazil this week are likely to boost crop development and improve conditions in some areas which have recently suffered from dry weather.

 

In Argentina, where crops have experienced less-than-normal rainfall this year, the weather outlook calls for scattered showers and thunderstorms of 0.50-1.50 inches on Monday (Jan 31), said Mike Palmerino, forecaster with Telvent DTN weather service.

 

"A more regular pattern of significant rainfall and no severe heat will favour filling corn and soybeans in the major growing areas," Palmerino said.

 

Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso are expected to receive regular showers, providing adequate soil moisture to soy.

 

"Generally favourable weather for filling soybeans in the major growing areas with mostly adequate soil moisture. Mostly favourable weather for any early soybean harvest expected in the north through midweek," the forecaster said.

 

Brazil's approaching soy harvest may surprise markets with a bigger than expected output, despite it being a La Nina year when weather is typically drier over the grain belt here.

 

Global soy prices have been firming sharply since September last year due to strong Chinese demand and concerns over drought over the South American crops. Argentina has lowered its crop forecasts due to dry weather but Brazil has so far escaped serious losses due to La Nina.

 

The 6-10-day weather outlook in the US southern Plains winter wheat area calls for temperatures warming to near-to above normal in the first half of the period with precipitation near-to below normal.

 

"Further stress to the wheat crop during the outlook period with very warm weather in the past few days being replaced by subzero temperatures this week. Light to moderate snowfall will provide some protection from the subzero cold but not complete protection due to the effects of blowing snow," said Palmerino.

 

The US hard red wheat crop went into dormancy in poor condition, suffering from a lack of rain since the autumn. Wheat continues to deteriorate this winter as dryness persists.

 

In the Midwest, a major winter storm followed by subzero cold will impact livestock and barge transportation this week.