February 1, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Friday: Up 8-10 cents on outside markets, technical support

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected start Friday's day session on firm footing, buoyed by spillover strength from outside markets and technical strength.

 

CBOT soybean futures are called to start the session 8 to 10 cents higher.

 

In overnight e-CBOT trading, March soybeans were 10 cents higher at US$12.84 1/2, July soybeans were 11 1/2 cents higher at US$13.18 3/4, and November soybeans were 11 1/2 cents higher at US$12.57.

 

The absence of fresh fundamental news is seen keeping market attention on outside influences, with higher metal futures, firmer U.S. equities and a weaker U.S. dollar expected to attract fresh speculative buying, analysts said.

 

"It's the first of the month and fresh money may be ready to roll into the market, with solid underlying technical support and a bullish spark from Minneapolis wheat propelling over US$14.00 a bushel overnight supportive as well," a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

Firm cash markets are seen aiding nearby futures, with the need for new crop prices push to levels that will keep soybeans competitive versus corn and wheat to attract spring acres bolstering strength as well, analysts added.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for March soybeans is to push and close prices above psychological resistance at US$13.00. The next downside price objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at US$12.50.

 

First resistance for March soybeans is seen at Thursday's high of US$12.79 1/2 and then at US$12.90. First support is seen at Thursday's low of US$12.62 and then at US$12.50.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix Weather Service said showers through the southern belt of Brazil look to be light while the north continues to see moderate to heavy thunderstorms. The rains in the north are becoming somewhat of a concern for maturing soybeans and the early harvest, Meteorlogix said.

 

Scattered showers and cooler temperatures during the past week or so have helped ease stress to crops in Argentina. Episodes of scattered light showers and no severe heat will limit any stress to crops during the next 7 days, Meteorlogix added.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Friday, supported by rising soyoil prices. The benchmark September 2008 soybean contract settled RMB55 higher at 4,720 a metric tonne. Cash soybean prices in China's major producing regions were higher in the week to Friday, as farmers were reluctant to sell due to limited stocks on hand.