January 30, 2009

 

Brazil's leading soy-producing state, Mato Grosso, is producing steady, better-than-expected yields from the new 2008-09 soy crop, despite farmers' using less fertilizer on their fields, analysts said.

 

Private estimates peg Mato Grosso's soy yields at between 48 and 52 60-kilogrammeme bags of soy per hectare from the initial harvests.

 

The better yield expectations come despite Mato Grosso's farmers last year complaining that high fertilizer prices were forcing them to use less fertilizer, or none at all. The first fields to be harvested in the giant state are showing yields that are better than were anticipated, said analysts.

 

"Early yields in Mato Grosso have been good, and they [yields] remain stable from last year despite using less fertilizer," David Goncalves, a soy consultant at FC Stone, told Dow Jones Newswires.

 

Goncalves said that as the soy harvest gets fully underway, soy yields in Mato Grosso should improve to around 60 60-kilogramme bags per hectare from average of 50 bags per hectare if the weather remains favourable.

 

Despite the lower use of fertilizer, soy can grow easily in fields that have been previously planted with beans. This is because the soil still retains many of the original nutrients. The weather at the end of 2008 was also favorable, providing a suitable mix of rain and sun to help the beans.

 

Seneri Paludo, an analyst at Mato Grosso's Agricultural Economy Institute, or Imea, agreed that soy yields have remained similar to last year's. Paludo said that up to 52 bags per hectare are currently being reported by farmers. This is close to 52.4 bags in 2007-08, he said.

 

Imea expects that Mato Grosso should produce 16.8 million tonnes of soy in 2008-09 compared with 17.6 million last year.

 

Paludo said that Mato Grosso's farmers had harvested 3 percent of their soy area by Jan. 24 and should reach 5 percent by Jan. 30, when Imea's next research will be finalized.

 

Fernando Muraro, an analyst of national farm consultancy AgRural, has pegged initial yields in Mato Grosso as up to 55 60-kilogramme bags of soy.

 

Muraro warns, however, that hot and dry weather in parts of Mato Grosso may reduce this to around 50 bags on average for the 2008-09 crop season.

 

Steve Cachia, an analyst at consultancy Cerealpar, said that this dry weather in Mato Grosso is in a few isolated areas. This shouldn't dramatically impact the good yields, he said.

 

Analysts agree that yields in Mato Grosso are more positive than in Brazil's southern state of Parana, the No. 2 soy producer.

 

Soy-growing areas such as Cascavel and Toledo in northern and western Parana suffered a long period of dry weather between mid-November and early January. The recent rains have helped to add moisture to the brittle, dry soil, but for many beans the damage has already been already done.

 

As a result, Parana's soy yields vary between 20 and 40 60-kilogramme bags per hectare from the first beans harvested, said Muraro.

 

He expects on average 43 bags will be produced per hectare in Parana as harvest gets underway.

 

Otmar Hubner, a technical specialist at Parana state's agricultural secretariat, or Seab, said that the yields have fallen 17 percent per hectare this year due to the drought.

 

Parana will produce around 10 million tonnes of soy in 2008-09, down from its initial estimate of 12.8 million tonnes, he said.

 

Brazil is the No. 2 producer of soy after the US.