January 29, 2014

South Africa lifts forecast of wheat harvest by 2.5%

With deliveries of the grain in the Western Cape province increased, South Africa raised its forecast for wheat output by 2.5%, according to the Crop Estimates Committee.

The nation approximately produced 1.8 million tonnes for the 2013 season, Marda Scheepers, a senior statistician at the Pretoria-based committee, said.

The median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for the prediction to be unchanged from the committee's December 20 forecast of 1.75 million tonnes. The country's farmers produced 1.87 million tonnes in the previous season.

South Africa, a net importer of wheat, is sub-Saharan Africa's largest producer of the grain after Ethiopia and the region's biggest buyer after Nigeria and Sudan, according to USDA data.

Wheat for delivery in March on South African Futures Exchange fell 0.4% to ZAR3,820 (US$345) a tonne by the close Tuesday (Jan 28).

The committee left its forecast for output of malting barley unchanged at 263,602 tonnes and maintained its estimate for rapeseed production at 112,041 tonnes.

The South African farmers' corn acreage will probably decline 2.5% this year to 2.71 million hectares (6.7 million acres) after growers substituted the crop with oilseeds such as sunflowers, Scheepers said.

The estimate for white-corn plantings fell 2.8% to 1.57 million hectares from a year earlier, while that for yellow corn was cut 2.2% to 1.14 million hectares. Cornmeal made from the white variety is used for a staple food known as pap in South Africa, while the yellow type is mostly fed to animals.

The sunflower area will probably surge 23% to 618,400 hectares, while that for sorghum will increase 19% to 74,700 hectares.

Soy plantings may drop 0.1% to 516,000 hectares while the drybean area may climb 29% to 56,170 hectares. The groundnut area will probably rise 6.6% to 50,000 hectares.