January 29, 2009

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's initial estimates of what farmers will plant in 2009, released Monday, are a good "starting point," said industry analysts, who expressed scepticism of forecasts.

"I talk to farmers all the time, and they don't know what they're going to plant," said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada. "It's an initial guess...but these numbers will be subject to a lot of potential changes in the next few months."

Canola area in 2009 was forecast at a record 16.803 million acres by Ag Canada, which would be up from the already record 16.159 million acres in 2008. Jubinville agreed that canola acres would hold up on the year, due to the favourable returns per acre for the crop.

However, Jubinville was less sure about Ag Canada's projections for barley acres. The government agency is currently forecasting a slight increase in plantings to 9.674 million acres, from 9.357 million in 2008.

"The economics, at least as they pertain to feed barley, make it one of the worst crops to grow," said Jubinville. He added that while malting barley does pencil out well, only a small portion of the country's barley crop is ever selected as malt quality.

"The returns per acre favour canola, spring wheat and then barley," said a second industry analyst. He didn't expect to see any increase in barley acres and also disagreed with Ag Canada with regards to durum.

Ag Canada is forecasting a decrease in durum acres to 5.609 million, from 6.030 million in 2008. While durum supplies will be large heading into the new crop year, the industry analyst said durum farmers were used to holding onto large stocks. "Talking with durum farmers across western Canada, durum acres could be very similar, because they are already hearing about lower durum acres in the US and Europe," he added.

As far as wheat is concerned, Jubinville said most producers would be waiting until after the Canadian Wheat Board releases its new crop pool return outlooks in late February before making any decisions. Ag Canada currently estimates all-wheat acres in 2009 at 23.895 million, down from 25.009 million in 2008.

Oats acres are expected to remain steady, according to Ag Canada.

However, Tracy Glessing of the North East Terminal in Saskatchewan said current prices weren't that favourable for oats, which could cause some acres to shift into other crops, particularly wheat.