January 29, 2007

Australian 2007 wheat output could soar to 26 million tonnes
 

Australian wheat production could more than double to 26 million tonnes next crop year due to average seasonal conditions, Ron Storey of Australian Crop Forecasters, said Monday.

"That's a very early crystal ball, let's wait and see if we get those rains in the April to May period," he said in a brief report on Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio, noting that recent widespread rains have lifted farmers' spirits.

Australian wheat production fell more than 60 percent to less than 10 million tonnes in 2006, in the face of a severe drought through eastern and southern Australia, in turn sharply constraining export availability.

The government's Bureau of Meteorology has reported that an El Nino event that was associated with the 2006 drought appears to be in decline. An easing in El Nino conditions would increase the likelihood of a return to normal rainfall.

Blair Trewin of the bureau said history has shown that as El Nino events fade, normal or above-average rains generally fall through eastern Australia in late summer or autumn, though the timing of actual falls varies after each El Nino.