January 28, 2011

 

China's grain demand to grow four million tonnes yearly

 

China's grain consumption will likely increase by four million tonnes a year over the next five years, as it is becoming more difficult to guarantee local supply of agricultural products, Vice Agricultural Minister Chen Xiaohua said Thursday (Jan 27).

 

Supply of major agricultural products will be restricted by tight land and water resources, extreme weather conditions and intense competition in international markets, Chen said.

 

Edible oil demand will rise by about 800,000 tonnes a year and meat demand about one million tonnes, he said.

 

China's grain output in 2010 was around 546.4 million tonnes, while edible oil and meat production were 39.2 million tonnes and 77.8 million tonnes respectively, according to government data.

 

Compared with Chen's forecast, which represents about 1% in annual growth in grain demand, the agriculture ministry has yet to set a specific target for 2011 grain output; instead, the government said it would ensure grain output this year at above 500 million tonnes.

 

Agricultural Minister Han Changfu said earlier the amount was a "must" for grain self-sufficiency.

 

However, China's grain consumption will exceed output in the next 10 years amid population rise, change in diets and expansion in modern food and animal feed sectors, said Ding Shengjun, a researcher at the Academy of State Administration of Grain.

 

By 2010, China's grain demand is expected to be more than 600 million tonnes, exceeding the amount it can produce, Ding said.

 

To ensure grain supply, the agricultural ministry has ordered that grain acreage must be stabilised at more than 1.07 million hectares and the total arable land area must stay above 120 million hectares. Meanwhile, the government is increasing the role of science and technology in raising grain output.

 

The government will also steadily increase the minimum purchase prices of major grains including rice and wheat to protect farmers' interest and improve reserves of key agricultural products and export/import policies, Chen said.

 

China should strengthen policies on agricultural security to cope with challenges from foreign companies, by introducing non-technical barriers, rules on market access, anti-dumping, anti-subsidies and specific safeguard measures to limit imports, Chen added.