January 28, 2008
Argentina's grain forecasts lowered on dryness
Dry weather is limiting potential yields for Argentina's young corn and soy crops and leading to lower production estimates for the 2007-08 crops, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of Argentina's leading agricultural analysts.
Potential for continued dryness throughout the growing season due to the La Nina weather phenomenon is also limiting expectations.
Soy could reach 44 million tonnes
Argentina is also set to produced less soy this season compared with last year due to dry weather, despite record area planted with the oilseed, the exchange said.
While late rains could improve yields, "the stunted growth, inefficient capture of light, and a lower number of plants will cut yields by at least 6 percent from last season," the exchange said. Some planned planting may also be abandoned, according to the Secretariat.
Farmers have planted 98.4 percent of the record 16.9 million hectares seen going to soy this season, according to the exchange.
Analysts are also pulling back from earlier high forecasts.
Continued dry weather will lower production to 44 million tonnes, while increased rainfall could lead to 47 million tonnes of output, Granar S.A.'s Adrian Seltzer said.
Panagricola S.A.'s Ricardo Baccarin pegs soy output at between 46 million and 47 million tonnes.
While more optimistic, AgriPac Consultores Pablo Adreani has also trimmed his forecast for 2007-08 soy output to 48.1 million tonnes, compared with the 51.1 million tonnes he forecast in November.
Corn forecast range between 18.5 to 23.2 million tonnes
Dry weather and late frosts have sharply cut Argentina's potential corn yields compared with the excellent output last season, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said in its weekly crop report Friday.
The exchange had expected output of about 25 million tonnes this season, but adverse weather conditions will cause production to fall by 16 percent to 20 percent from that figure, the exchange said.
Analysts have also cut forecasts for 2007-08 corn production, with Panagricola's Baccarin estimating production of 20.5 million to 21 million tonnes.
Granar's Seltzer sees corn output falling even sharper to between 18.5 million and 20.5 million tonnes.
"The lowering of forecasts is due to light rainfall during December and January," Seltzer said. "Rains at this point could improve crop performance, but it is impossible to get to what we were initially expecting."
AgriPac's Adreani has steadily decreased his forecast for 2007-08 corn, cutting his forecast to 23.2 million tonnes, compared with 24 million tonnes at the beginning of January and 26.4 million tonnes forecast in November.
As of last Friday, farmers had planted 97 percent of the 2007-08 corn crop, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
Sunflower seed expected at 4.3 million tonnes
AgriPac's Adreani also pulled back his forecast for 2007-08 sunflower seed production to just under 4.3 million tonnes compared with the almost 4.7 million tonnes he forecast in November.
Granar's Seltzer sees 4 million to 4.3 million tonnes of sunflower seeds coming from the Pampas this year, with dry weather cutting yields.
As of last Friday, farmers had harvested 13 percent of the 2007-08 sunflower seed crop, according to the exchange.
Farmers planted 2.7 million hectares with sunflower seeds this season, up 13.2 percent from last year.
Early yields have averaged 1.8 tonnes per hectare, 290 kilograms per hectare higher than yields at this time last year, when drought challenged the crop.
Wheat the only bright spot at 15.5 million tonnes
The one bright spot is the 2007-08 wheat harvest. Excellent yields in the northern provinces compensated for frost damage in the Southeast, which turned out to be less serious than initially thought, Granar's Seltzer said. Seltzer pegged output at 15.5 million to 16 million tonnes.
AgriPac's Adreani came in on the high end, forecasting 16.5 million tonnes of wheat from this crop. Panagricola's Baccarin was more pessimistic, forecasting production of 15 million tonnes.
The 2007-08 wheat harvest was completed earlier this month.
Argentina's soy and corn production have risen rapidly in recent years, with both soy and corn having registered a 7-million tonne increase from the 2005/06 crop year to 2006/07 year.
Estimates for Argentina's 2007-08 crop production in millions of hectares (HA) or million tonnes (MT).
|
|
Wheat |
Soy |
Corn |
Sunseed |
|
AgriPac Consultores |
16.5MT |
48.1MT |
23.2MT |
4.3MT |
|
Granar S.A. |
15.5-16MT |
44-47MT |
18.5-20.5 |
4-4.3MT |
|
Panagricola S.A. |
15MT |
46-47MT |
20.5-21 |
N/A |
|
Agriculture Sec't |
15.4MT |
|
|
3.8-4.2MT |
|
USDA |
15MT |
47MT |
22.5MT |
4.5MT |
|
B.A. Cereals Exch. |
|
|
|
- |
Argentina's historical production estimates in millions of tonnes, according to the Agriculture Secretariat:
|
|
Wheat |
Soy |
Corn |
Sunseed |
|
2006/07 |
14.6 |
47.5 |
21.8 |
3.5 |
|
2005/06 |
12.6 |
40.5 |
14.5 |
3.8 |
|
2004/05 |
16 |
38.3 |
20.5 |
3.7 |
|
2003/04 |
14.6 |
31.6 |
15 |
3.1 |
|
2002/03 |
12.3 |
35 |
14.7 |
3.4 |
