January 26, 2011

India's increasing heat may hit wheat production

India's increasing temperatures and lack of rain during this winter period may unfavourably affect its wheat crop if the same weather continues for the next subsequent 10-15 days.

"It would be a repeat of last year when there were no winter rains and temperatures were unusually high in February and March leading to shrivelling of the wheat grains," said a senior official in the state agriculture department.

India's wheat production in 2010 was around 309 lakh (30.9 million) tonnes but the quality was poor. As a result, farmers suffered huge losses as mills refused to buy the crop. The government had to procure wheat to compensate for the losses.

Wheat requires moderate temperatures (maximum 20-23 degrees Celsius and minimum 4-5 degrees Celsius) during sowing season and light rains in January for growth. High temperature and no rains lead to improper growth of the crop, early ripening and damages formation of grain. Wheat that was planted in November is presently in the milking stage while the one planted in December is in the flowering stage. The present weather conditions may damage the wheat in both the conditions.

This year, till January 13, the maximum temperatures were around 15 degrees Celsius. But for the past one week, the maximum temperatures have been above 25 degrees Celsius, 2-5 degrees above normal. "If warm weather conditions continued for 10-15 days, it might cause severe damage to wheat. The heat will shrivel the grains of wheat in the milking stage and affect the growth of the wheat planted in December," said president, Kisan Jagriti Manch, Sudhir Kumar.

UP is the largest wheat producer in India, providing 35% to food basket. This year the target of wheat production is over 300 lakh (30 million) tonnes. During 2009 and 2008, wheat production in the state stood at 275 lakh (27.5 million) tonnes and 255 lakh (25.5 million) tonnes respectively. At many places in east UP, wheat was sown in November which, at present, is in the milking stage. But in west UP, farmers sowed wheat late due to delay in disposal of sugarcane, hence the crop is still in the early stage.