Brazil soy crop forecast adjusts upward

Helped by favourable weather in key producing areas, Brazil's 2009-10 soy crop should reach a record 65.1 million tonnes, up from last season's 57 million tonnes, grains analysts Agroconsult projected on Monday (Jan 25).

The figure could be increased when a tour promoted by Agroconsult ends on March 22. Participants of the annual tour, which begins Monday, expect to gather 1,500 samples from soy and corn fields in 11 Brazilian states and the federal district.

"Rains are above average in nearly all producing regions," said Agroconsult's analyst Fabio Meneghin.

Soy output is also expected to increase due to a bigger planted area, estimated by Agroconsult at 23 million hectares, up more than 5% from last season.

The corn summer crop, meanwhile, was put at 33.4 million tonnes, little changed from the 33.6 million tonnes of 2008-09.

The soy harvest has just started in the center-west region, while gathering the corn crop has begun in the country's south.

The weather has been beneficial for the soy crop in big producing states such as Mato Grosso, Parana and Goias. In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's No. 3 soy producer, however, excess rains in some areas are making forecasts more difficult.

"If producers (in Rio Grande do Sul) harvest one bag per hectare more than our estimate, this means 240,000 additional tonnes, which would raise the total crop to 65.3 million tonnes," Meneghin said.

Agronomists also expect to find more fields with genetically-modified (GM) corn during the tour. GM corn varieties just recently became available for producers as the first ones were cleared in 2007. Last season, they accounted for less than 5% of the Brazilian corn crop.