January 26, 2004

 

 

Brazil Soy Crop Outlook Good

 

Good weather conditions across Brazil's soy belt are fostering the healthy development of the potentially record 2003-04 crop (October-September), the local Safras e Mercado agricultural consultancy said Friday.

 

A weekly survey showed crop progress was slightly ahead of schedule but the harvest was still in its infancy, said Flavio Franca Jr., Safras' soy analyst.

 

He estimated that just 0.5% of the crop, estimated at 59.7 million metric tons, had been harvested up to Friday, virtually on a par with the 0.4% harvested at the same point last year. Harvesting is focused in the main- producing state of Mato Grosso, where 2% of the crop is already out of the ground.

 

Some 10% of the crop is in the maturation, or pre-harvest phase, ahead of the 5% registered last year and the five-year average of 6% for the time of year. These figures indicate harvesting would move forward quickly should rains ease in the center-west region.

 

Heavy rains have affected crop development in the center-west state of Goias, where only 8% of the crop was in the maturation phase, compared with 30% at the same point last year and the five-year average of 14% for the state. In Mato Grosso state, 14% of the crop is mature, compared with 15% last year and the five-year average of 15%.

 

But overall, the wet weather in the center-west is yet to have a negative impact on crop potential there, said Franca.

 

Some 35% of Brazil's crop had reached the pod-filling phase by Friday, ahead of the 27% registered last year and the five-year average of 27%. Meanwhile 28% of the crop was in the flowering phase compared with 38% last year and an average of 39%. Some 27% of the crop was in the initial vegetative development phase, slightly lower than the 30% registered last year and on a par with the five-year average of 27%.

 

While the weather outlook was generally good, Franca said there were some concerns about dryness in the northern Rio Grande do Sul and to a lesser extent in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo states.

 

He said the main concern this season was the spread of Asian rust fungus across most of the soy belt.

 

The fungus has already been identified in all the main soy states this year, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, but he believes losses will be lower than last year when government officials estimated the fungus cut production by 3 million tons.

 

"Farmers have been monitoring closely for the fungus and spraying when necessary. But costs will rise because of this," he said.

 

Brazil is expected take over from the U.S. as the world's largest soybean exporter in 2004.