January 25, 2011

Most of Brazilian soy belt to receive ample rainfall

Most of Brazil's soy belt will receive abundant rainfall this week, further improving the chances that Latin America's farming powerhouse will reap a bumper crop in the next months, meteorologists said Monday (Jan 24).

The world's No. 2 soy exporter after the US harvested a record 69-million-tonne crop last year, and is expected to come close to that level again this year, if rains begin to taper off for the harvest.

"This week will be characterised by rain in most soy areas in Brazil. From Rio Grande do Sul to Maranhao, it will rain in the coming days," Somar meteorologists predicted.

Despite the late arrival of spring rains over the soy belt during the September-December planting season, moisture over the crop has been nearly normal since late October through December. And January is shaping up to be a wet one.

Somar said that rainfall in the soy-rich center-west states was already above average levels for the entire month of January in some areas and that more rain was due through the end of the month.

"In the center-west, rains will also fall, although without the so-called intervals of sunny and hot days breaking up the rainy days," the bulletin said.

High levels of soil moisture are critical during this stage of the soy crop's development when plants fill pods with beans. But sun and hot weather are also important as they hasten photosynthesis in the plant to produce good quality beans.

Drier, hot weather also helps contain the spread of Asian soy rust which thrives in moist, cool conditions and can devastate a crop if left unchecked. Incessant rain can also keep fungicide sprayers out of the fields.

But so far, no major problems with the disease have been reported across the soy belt, and years of experience with controlling the disease keeps producers on their toes.

In its extended 10-day forecast, Somar predicted "rains will intensify over (No. 2 soy state) Parana, Sao Paulo and (No. 5 soy state) Mato Grosso do Sul due to a cold front that will pass over the south and southeast, between the end of January and early February.