January 25, 2006

USDA: Global wheat production up slightly in January

In USDA's January Wheat Outlook, the projected world wheat production for 2005/06 is 616.4 million tonnes, with an increase of 1.1 million this month.

China recorded the largest increase, up by 1 million tonnes to 97 million. USDA arrived at this figure after combining data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture. Based on production reports for Sweden, Poland and Estonia, wheat production in the EU-25 for 2005/06 increased 0.3 million tonnes to 122.9 million.

According to the report, the projected foreign wheat use for 2005/06 had a slight decrease this month. With reduced production, Russia had a 0.4 million-tonne decrease in feed use. Bulgaria also recorded a small reduction in feed use because of strong exports.

This month, world ending stocks for 2005/06 increased by 1.3 million tonnes to 144.7 million because of increased production and slightly lower use. China had increased production, boosting its ending stocks by 1 million tonnes to 36 million. The EU-25 was up 0.3 million tonnes to 21.3 million.

USDA said global wheat stocks for 2005/06 are projected to decline less than 4 percent, pointing to a drop of 5 million tonnes. The EU-25 is expecting the largest decline in ending stocks compared with beginning stocks, down 4 million tonnes during 2005/06, due to increasing use of wheat for feed.

The latest report said global wheat trade in 2005/06 is projected at 111 million tonnes, up slightly this month. This closely matches levels reported in 3 of the previous 4 years. Due to recent International Trade Commission and North American Free Trade rulings to remove import duties on hard red spring wheat, US imports increased 0.2 million tonnes to 2.4 million.

USDA said US wheat exports and sales is in line with the 2005/06 forecasts of 27.5 million tonnes for July-June and 1.0 billion bushels for June-May. The US export situation is supported by strong sales to Nigeria and Iraq. 

For the full USDA report, click here.