January 24, 2006

USDA: Global coarse grains production up in January

The USDA, in its January Feed Outlook, projected global coarse grains production in 2005/06 at 958 million tonnes, up 5 million from the previous month. China's corn production, forecast at a record 134 million tonnes, is expected to bump up total foreign (non-US) coarse grain production to 660 million tonnes. The higher Chinese output has been attributed to government subsidies, which have boosted corn planting.

This month's forecast for foreign coarse grain output was revised upwards by 3 million tonnes. 

Coarse grain tonnage from EU-25 was 131 million tonnes, up 0.9 million tonnes from the previous report. Mixed grain production is up in Poland and Spain's corn production was reported larger than expected, said the USDA.

For Russia and Argentina, coarse grains productions were lower at 27.7 million tonnes and 20.5 million respective, down by 1.4 million and 0.8 million tonnes to.

The latest report also revised up US projected coarse grains use for 2005/06. However, the increase is offset by a decline in expected foreign consumption. The USDA says foreign coarse grains disappearance is down nearly 4 million tonnes this month to 730 million. Russia's reduced consumption, at 28.2 million tonnes or a drop of 1.2 million tonnes, is expected to offset the country's overall lower grains tonnage.

For 2005/06, foreign coarse grain ending stocks was 98.2 million tonnes, an increase of 9.2 million tonnes this month. Brazil had the largest increase, up 4.2 million tonnes. Due to increased corn production, China's projected coarse grains stocks rose 4.1 million tonnes this month.

The report said EU-25 coarse grains are up 1.4 million tonnes this month because of increased production and imports. Due to stiff competition from low quality wheat, its coarse grain feed use is down from the previous year.

The USDA expects global corn trade in 2005/06 to hit 75.4 million tonnes, down 0.5 million this month. As duties are imposed on imports from the US, Canada's imports are projected to reach 1.5 million tonnes, down 0.5 million tonnes. USDA said since many users may be eligible for duty rebates, the effect on imports remain uncertain until regulations can be worked out. With higher stocks, Brazil's imports are expected to decrease by 0.3 million tonnes. As large import licences are in place, EU-25 corn imports increased by 0.5 million tonnes this month to a total of 3.0 million tonnes.

A decline was noted for projected 2005/06 US corn exports. Due to sluggish sales and shipments, the projected figure was reduced 1.0 million tonnes to 47.5 million.

For the full USDA report, click here.