January 23, 2007
The USDA 2006 oil crops summary indicates that US soybean harvest rose to a record 3,188 million bushels in 2006, primarily on the strength of a record sown area (75.5 million acres).
The 2006 soybean yield of 42.7 bushels is the second highest ever achieved. The USDA this month trimmed the 2006-07 export forecast for soybeans by 25 million bushels to 1,120 million bushels.
Through Dec 2006, commercial export shipments of soybean oil were double the volume of a year earlier. China has re-emerged as a strong market for the commodity, accounting for more than one-quarter of US export sales this season.
In November, lower soybean oil use pushed up the month-end stocks to 3,074 million pounds, two-thirds higher than a year earlier.
US soybean meal exports in 2006-07 were forecast up to 7.7 million short tonnes this month from 7.5 million tonnes previously.
The final production estimate for cottonseed in 2006 totalled 7.6 million short tonnes, an upward revision of 153,000 tonnes from the December forecast.
Meanwhile, abundant rainfall raised the 2006-07 production forecast for Argentine soybeans from 42.0 million to 42.5 million tonnes. An increase in the Argentine soybean supply raises the 2006-07 export forecast from 7.2 million to 7.35 million tonnes, just above 2005-06 exports of 7.26 million tonnes.
The Argentina's government recently announced it was raising export taxes by 4 percent on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Since the soybean crop is already sown, the tax hike should have little effect on 2006-07 export volume.
With sowing of the 2006-07 rapeseed crop recently completed in northern India, farmers are now expected to harvest 6.7 million hectares, down from 7.3 million hectares last year. The area reduction was due to strong prices for alternative crops (particularly wheat) and a large carryover of government-held rapeseed stocks.
As a result, the forecast of Indian rapeseed production fell to 6.2 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes previously and 6.8 million tonnes in 2005-06.
For the full USDA report, please click here
