Russian grain exports seen down in January

Russian grain exports this month are expected to decline from December levels but they may still be high for the start of the year despite long holidays, analysts said on Thursday (Jan 21).

"Exports may be 1.3-1.4 million tonnes in January 2010, which is a record volume for this month in the last few years," the analytical centre at the biggest Russian grain transport company, Rusagrotrans, said.

SovEcon agricultural analysts said, "If all previously signed contracts are executed, exports in January and February, may reach rather high levels for winter of 1.2 million tonnes and 1.5 million tonnes, respectively."

Russia's exports normally decline in January due to long New Year holidays, which this year lasted from January 1 to January 10. Both Rusagrotrans and SovEcon estimated Russian December grain exports at 1.5 million tonnes.

Rusagrotrans said Russian grain exports in the calendar 2009 year to have been 21.7 million tonnes, up 61% from 13.5 million tonnes in the calendar 2008.

The value of exports rose less markedly, by 16% to US$3.6 billion from US$3.1 billion, as the weighted average grain price declined to US$170 per tonne in 2009 from US$229 per tonne in 2008, Rusagrotrans said.

It said that half of Russian export grain last year was shipped to ports or to customers by rail.

Normally, analysts estimate grain export volumes by crop years, which in Russia start on July 1 and end on June 30, as calendar year export volumes include shipments left from previous crops.

Russian 2008-09 exports were over 23 million tonnes after a bumper crop 2008 crop of 108 million tonnes. The country harvested 97 million tonnes of grain in 2009 and its exportable surplus is estimated at around 20 million tonnes in 2009-10.