January 21, 2011

 

East Europe's 2011 grain may yield more

 

 

Eastern Europe is likely to reap more grain crops in 2011 as many farmers shift to spring wheat after bad weather hit winter sowings, though it will not be enough to relieve tight global stocks.

 

Heavy rains delayed sowings in most of ex-communist Europe late last year, heightening worries about cereal yields while timely precipitation in some ex-Soviet states may sharply boost output there, analysts say.

 

Grain experts said a surge in global wheat prices and generally unfavourable weather in Europe could be a badly needed incentive for cereal growers to increase planting areas.

 

The increase is however unlikely to be substantial as crop rotation and the generally poor quality of soil in Poland work as natural limitations. Wieslaw Lopaciuk, analyst the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics, expects a 2-3% rise.

 

Polish farm minister Marek Sawicki sees grain output picking up from 2010 when it fell 8.5% on the year to 27 million tonnes. Poland reaped 9.5 million tonnes of wheat last year.

 

Further east, ex-Soviet Ukraine and Kazakhstan eye sharper rises in their grain harvests helped by timely heavy snowfalls.

 

Ukrainian forecasters predict 2011 grain crops will exceed last year's level of 39 million tonnes, aided also by the absence of severe winter frost.

 

UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy said Ukraine was likely to boost its grain harvest to 46.2 million tonnes with winter wheat rising to 20.2 million tonnes from 16.5 in 2010.

 

Heavy snow cover in Kazakhstan in December had replenished low moisture reserves in the autumn, said Sagintai Zhumazhanov, head of the farm ministry's agrotechnology policy unit.

 

The Central Asian state expects its harvest to recover to 15-16 million tonnes this year from 12.2 million tonnes in 2010, although that would be well short of the record 20.8 million harvested in 2009.

 

European milling wheat futures almost doubled in 2010 after a wave of weather events including severe drought in Russia and floods in Australia and the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation had said food prices may rise more on erratic weather patterns.

 

However, bigger harvests in Eastern Europe and Kazakhstan will not offset smaller harvests elsewhere.

 

The International Grains Council had said that in the EU, the all-wheat area should increase by 1% to 26.2 million hectares, slightly less than previously forecast due to adversely wet conditions in south-eastern member states.

 

The EU's smaller grain growers Romania and Bulgaria-which sowed slightly less acreage in the autumn and did not make predictions on this year's harvest-are expected to face crop diseases because of a warm winter, which may harm quality.

 

Bulgarian farmers have managed to make up for delays in autumn sowings and now the area put under wheat is just one million ha or 1% less than a year ago, said Radoslav Hristov, chairman of National Association of Grain Producers.

 

Northern neighbour Romania failed to meet its plan to sow 2.1 million ha and stopped fieldwork at 1.9 million ha.

 

In Hungary, latest data showed standing water was covering 75,000 hectares of about one million planted with autumn wheat.