US broiler output to increase in 2010

Broiler production in the US is expected to increase this year due to an anticipated higher number of chicks placed for growout.

Combined with a slight increase in average weights, broiler meat production is expected to reach 35.9 billion pounds, up 1% from 2009. The production increase is expected to be restrained by continuing uncertainties in the domestic economy.

Broiler meat production during the fourth quarter of 2009 is forecast at 8.85 billion pounds, down from a year earlier. The number of broiler eggs being set in incubators during the fourth quarter and the number of chicks being placed for growout has moved closer to the level seen in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Broiler meat production in November 2009 was 2.77 billion pounds, up 4% from a year earlier, compared with declines on a year-over-year basis for the previous seven consecutive months. In November, the number of birds slaughtered was 2.2% higher than the previous year; this increase was compounded by a 1% increase in the average liveweight for birds at slaughter to 5.67 pounds.

Broiler meat production in December is expected to slightly increase mainly due to higher average weights at slaughter, but there may also be a slight rise in the number of birds slaughtered compared with the previous year.

At the end of November, broiler stocks totalled 642 million pounds, up 29 million pounds from the end of October, but down 19% from the same period in 2008. Lower broiler meat production in 2009 has resulted in broiler stocks on a year-over-year basis being lower through the first 11 months of 2009.

Stocks of whole birds totalled 19 million pounds, down six million pounds or 24% on-year. Stock levels for nearly all broiler products were significantly lower than the previous year, the only exception being thigh meat.

Between the end of October and the end of November, stocks of most products increased with breast meat (up 16 million pounds) accounting for a major portion of the increase.

Broiler stocks are expected to total 640 million pounds at the end of 2009, down 14% from the previous year. In 2010, ending stocks are expected to be higher due to a large decline in exports and a small increase in meat production.