January 21, 2007
ASA weekly: Soyoil daily usage by biodiesel production declines 2 percent
The Census Bureau reports that soyoil usage in biodiesel production declined by 2 percent on a daily basis from October to November.
In November, soyoil accounted for 66 percent of US biodiesel production.
Biodiesel production consumed a total of 103,000 tonnes of soy in November, down from a revised 108,000 tonnes in October. Total usage of fats and oils for biodiesel dropped to 155,000 tonnes from 169,000 tonnes.
Capacity utilization continued to decline, falling to 30 percent as combined usage of all fats and oils dropped by 5 percent on a daily basis while biodiesel capacity increased by almost 100 million gallons during the month.
In the first half of 2007, soy makes up for 87 percent of US biodiesel production, on average. The share dropped to 75 percent in September and 64 percent in October as the use of other feedstocks was growing.
In November, soy accounted for 66 percent of biodiesel production as prices for alternative feedstocks are becoming too high for biodiesel use.
Soy complex mostly lower amidst weak energy prices and recession concerns
The US soy complex closed mostly lower on January 17, yet soy demand is projected to be high and will draw down US soy stocks to near minimum levels by the end of the 2007-08 marketing year.
The situation looks tight for 2008-09 due to the difficulty of boosting soy acreage as strong corn prices gain more acreage.
Argentina also posts a concern as the soy crop in the country develops under sub-par conditions. Analysts say the prices have not raised enough to allow for a tolerable supply and demand balance over the next 18 months.
March soy futures closed down US$2.20, finishing at US$467.01; May lost US$2.02, closing at US$474.36; and July was down US$3.12, ending at US$479.68.
March soymeal decreased US$2.87 closing at US$379.52; May was US$3.09 lower, finishing at US$386.91; and July meal closed down US$3.75 ending at US$391.87.
March soyoil increased US$3.97 to finish at US$1166.45; May was up US$7.05, closing at US$1183.87; and July was US$7.05 higher, closing at US$1196.66.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
6,960 |
12,229 |
15,589 |
174 |
334 |
2,264 |
1,638 |
2,252 |
2,578 |
|
Production |
83,368 |
86,770 |
70,605 |
40,500 |
47,200 |
47,000 |
57,000 |
59,000 |
62,000 |
|
Imports |
92 |
246 |
163 |
1,013 |
2,100 |
2,200 |
40 |
60 |
100 |
|
Crush |
47,324 |
49,160 |
49,805 |
32,748 |
35,600 |
38,750 |
28,756 |
30,500 |
29,400 |
|
Exports |
25,579 |
30,428 |
27,080 |
7,130 |
10,250 |
10,500 |
24,770 |
25,300 |
30,400 |
|
Other |
5,288 |
4,068 |
4,447 |
1,475 |
1,520 |
1,620 |
2,900 |
2,934 |
2,950 |
|
Usage |
78,191 |
83,656 |
81,332 |
41,353 |
47,370 |
50,870 |
56,426 |
58,734 |
62,750 |
|
Carryout |
12,229 |
15,589 |
5,025 |
334 |
2,264 |
594 |
2,252 |
2,578 |
1,928 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
156 |
285 |
318 |
1,686 |
1,996 |
1,696 |
640 |
794 |
766 |
|
Production |
37,416 |
39,033 |
39,448 |
25,582 |
27,718 |
30,425 |
22,300 |
23,637 |
22,755 |
|
Domestic use |
30,114 |
31,171 |
32,024 |
574 |
618 |
645 |
10,073 |
11,000 |
11,220 |
|
Net Exports |
7,173 |
7,829 |
7,470 |
24,698 |
27,400 |
29,764 |
12,073 |
12,665 |
11,620 |
|
Usage |
37,287 |
39,000 |
39,494 |
25,272 |
28,018 |
30,409 |
22,146 |
23,665 |
22,840 |
|
Carryout |
285 |
318 |
272 |
1,996 |
1,696 |
1,712 |
794 |
766 |
681 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
771 |
1,366 |
1,317 |
385 |
487 |
520 |
248 |
300 |
286 |
|
Production |
9,248 |
9,292 |
9,421 |
6,169 |
6,810 |
7,400 |
5,521 |
5,850 |
5,641 |
|
Domestic use |
8,146 |
8,502 |
9,026 |
402 |
600 |
985 |
3,172 |
3,455 |
3,540 |
|
Net exports |
507 |
839 |
731 |
5,665 |
6,177 |
6,435 |
2,297 |
2,409 |
2,167 |
|
Usage |
8,653 |
9,341 |
9,757 |
6,067 |
6,777 |
7,420 |
5,469 |
5,864 |
5,707 |
|
Carryout |
1,366 |
1,317 |
981 |
487 |
520 |
500 |
300 |
286 |
220 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 10 January 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
|
Soybeans |
2.10 |
90.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.90 |
35.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
263.80 |
6390.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.60 |
36.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
9.10 |
89.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.70 |
31.60 |
|
|
Soybeans |
7.90 |
104.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
0.50 |
18.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
1.00 |
302.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
0.50 |
65.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
68.00 |
420.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.10 |
17.60 |
|
|
Soybeans |
27.00 |
145.40 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.60 |
249.00 |
|
|
Soybeans |
65.00 |
78.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
7.60 |
46.70 |
|
|
Soybeans |
184.30 |
1077.30 |
|
|
Soymeal |
8.00 |
24.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
19.00 |
27.60 |
|
|
Soyoil |
2.00 |
6.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
155.90 |
1204.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
10.00 |
1.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
59.20 |
642.90 |
|
|
Soyoil |
11.80 |
57.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
62.30 |
177.20 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.90 |
4.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
19.50 |
222.00 |
|
|
Soyoil |
20.10 |
15.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
55.90 |
670.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soybeans |
30.00 |
181.10 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
|
Soybeans |
9.20 |
21.60 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
15.40 |
391.40 |
|
Soybeans |
8,428.40 |
13,484.30 |
965.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
10.90 |
91.30 |
|
Soymeal |
1,667.70 |
2,115.70 |
93.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
10.90 |
32.40 |
|
Soyoil |
160.80 |
285.80 |
35.70 |
