January 21, 2008

 

US broiler production to continue rising in first half of 2008
 

 

US broiler production is expected to continue the trend seen in the fourth quarter of 2007, which saw more eggs set in incubators, more chicks placed for growout and rising broiler production, according to USDA's ERS Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook released Friday (January 18, 2008).

 

During the fourth quarter of 2007, eggs set in incubators averaged 214 million per week, up 3.7 percent from the same period a year earlier.

 

Chicks placed for growout averaged 173 million per week, an increase of 4 percent from the same period in 2006.

 

The trend is expected to continue as eggs placed in incubators and chicks placed for growout have continued to be well ahead of their year-earlier levels through the end of December.

 

Broiler meat production in November was 2.99 billion pounds, an increase of 3.3 percent from a year earlier as bird slaughter went up 1 percent  and liveweight up 2 percent .

 

Broiler meat production in December is expected to be up from the previous year, as chick placements have been consistently higher than a year earlier throughout all of October and November.

 

Broiler stocks at the end of November totaled 697 million pounds, up about 37 million pounds from the end of October and 1.7 percent higher than at the end of November 2006.

 

This is largely due to leg quarters whose stock was up 35 percent from 2006. At 67 million pounds at the end of November 2007, leg quarter stocks were 17.5 million pounds higher than the previous year.

 

Despite the strong increase, in the second half of 2007, stocks of leg quarters have been relatively stable, ranging from 58 to 67 million pounds.

 

The increase pales in comparison to that of paws. Stocks of paws rose 49 percent  to 22 million pounds in November on-year.

 

However, stocks of whole birds was down 2 million pounds from the November a year earlier, totaling 17.3 million pounds.

 

The stock levels for other specific products were also lower than a year earlier.

 

Broiler stocks are expected to total 675 million pounds at the end of 2007, down about 70 million pounds from the same time in 2006.

 

However, with broiler production expected to increase in the first half of 2008, ending stocks for the first and second quarters are expected to be above those for the same period in 2007.

 

Some broiler products have experienced a slide in prices from levels they reached at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter of 2007.

 

After reaching a high of 81.3 cents per pound in June, the 12-City monthly average price for whole birds fell to 70.6 cents per pound by October.

 

But as broiler supply tightened, prices have started moving higher.

 

In early January, the weekly average 12¨CCity whole bird price has been as high as 78 cents per pound. This pattern has been repeated for a number of broiler parts.