January 20, 2012

 

 

EU's 2011-12 grain output estimate has been raised by Strategie Grains Thursday (Jan 19) by 1.2 million tonnes, to 285 million tonnes, and added that highly unusual dry and mild weather is causing concern for the 2012-13 crop.

 

The influential analyst said the monthly increase in 2011-12's grain output mostly related to corn, of which it revised its production estimate upwards by 0.7 million tonnes, to 65.3 million tonnes.

 

Strategie Grains expects Romania to produce 0.35 million tonnes more corn than in its December estimate, while Spain and Austria are both seen increasing output by 0.1 million tonnes.

 

The analyst said the slight increase in its soft wheat production estimate--by 0.1 million tonnes, to 129.5 million tonnes--was mainly due to Poland, where it expects output to be 0.3 million tonnes higher than last month, at nine million tonnes.

 

Strategie Grains also revised its estimate for barley production down by 0.25 million tonnes this month, to 51.8 million tonnes, because of lower harvests in the UK and Poland.

 

Meanwhile, very dry and mild weather since the start of the winter crop growth cycle is starting to cause concern for the 2012-13 crop, the analyst said, despite cereal development being generally satisfactory so far this season.

 

Dry deep soil conditions means plant growth has been exuberant, Strategie Grains said, which could increase the risk of frost damage if plants come out of the tiller emergence phase earlier than normal. Plentiful rains and lower temperatures are needed for a prolonged period if yield potentials are to remain intact, it added.

 

The analyst warned that grain production estimates for 2012-13 are based on the yield trend for each country, so have potential for significant variation around its figure of 290 million tonnes, depending on weather conditions in coming months.

 

Strategie Grains revised its estimate for soft wheat production in 2012-13 down by 0.2 million tonnes, to 133.3 million tonnes, mostly due to a to a lower crop area forecast in Germany.

 

The analyst upwardly revised its projection for corn output by 0.2 million tonnes, to 62.3 million tonnes, due to higher acreage in Romania and Hungary as poor conditions for oilseed rape plantings means significant areas will be replanted with spring crops.

 

Estimated barley production was virtually unchanged this month at 54.5 million tonnes, with small area increases in Germany and Hungary being offset by reductions in various other countries.