January 19, 2011

Argentina's soy harvest may lose eight million tonnes

Argentina's dought-hit soy crop could slide from 54.5 million tonnes in 2010 to 46 million tonnes or even lower in 2011 unless more rain falls, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said Tuesday (Jan 18).

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange had estimated the crop in the world's third largest producing country at 47 million tonnes on January 13 because of continued drought in Argentina.

Concern Argentine production could fall has helped lift US soy futures in past days but rains have brought some relief this week.

"Unless conditions improve soon, it is getting more likely that this year's Argentine soybean crop will plunge to or below 46 million tonnes," Oil World said.

Recent Argentine weather forecasts were for more rain but Oil World warned that very heavy rain levels were now needed by parched crops and this was still regarded as unlikely.

About three million hectares of Argentine soy are in a critical condition and as of January 13, some 1.5 million hectares of the intended soy area had not been planted, it said.

"It is questionable whether planting intentions can be carried out," Oil World said.