January 19, 2011
EU predicts meat imports will rise as demand improves
Europe will, by 2020, become a net importer of all types of meat except pork, according to a prediction from the EU Commission report.
Although total meat production is set to rise and Europe will remain a net meat exporter, the EU's trade position is forecast to weaken considerably.
This trend will be driven by a drop in beef production, a steady increase in imports of beef and poultry and a parallel decline in exports of beef, pork and poultry.
Although total European meat production will reach 44.4 million tonnes in 2020, exceeding 2009 levels by 4%, local meat demand is set to expand on the back of increased consumption, which will draw in more imports.
The EU Commission report forecasts that per capita meat consumption in the EU will rise by 2% to 85.4kg by 2020.
The increase in pig and poultry consumption is identified as the primary driver of EU meat production growth.
Output of both pig and poultry meat is forecast to expand by 7%. In contrast, beef/veal production is likely to fall by 7% in the next decade.
Total meat imports are expected to grow by 14%, while exports will fall by almost 23% by 2020.
Despite these changes, the EU will still have net meat exports of around 200,000 tonnes.
Overall, European meat production is expected to recover over the short term from the decline suffered in the wake of the economic crisis, but longer-term growth prospects remain modest at an annual average rate of just 0.3%.
European milk production will pick up gradually over the next decade, the report said, with a moderate rise of 4% in total milk production by 2020.
Analysts predict that the ending of dairy quotas in 2015 will be relatively smooth.
Production of fresh dairy products, such as drinking milk, cream and yoghurts, are projected to increase by about 8% by 2020, while cheese output is forecast to grow by about 10%.
The outlook for cheese exports is positive as the EU is expected to retain a share in global cheese exports above 30%.
