January 18, 2010

Canadian farmers are expected to grow less wheat in the 2010-11 crop year.

While production may be down, prices will be dependent on quality and how the crops fare in other producing regions, according to Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis with Canadian Wheat Board (CWB).

Burnett said the CWB was expecting global wheat production to drop to 644 million tonnes in 2010-11. That would compare with the USDA's estimate for 2009-10 production of 676 million tonnes.

Canada's share of that global production total is expected to decline to 24 million tonnes, from 26.5 million in 2009-10, said Burnett at the CWB's annual Crop Production Week.

From a pricing standpoint, Burnett said the large spring wheat supplies in the US that are currently overhanging the market are mostly low-protein wheat. As a result, the higher-protein wheat is seeing a substantial premium in the market. He said any weather issues affecting protein around the world will be important to watch going forward.