January 18, 2005
Brazil's 2004-2005 Soy Crop Receives Optimal Weather
Brazil has enjoyed optimal climatic conditions for soy crop planted throughout the country, the local Celeres agricultural consultancy said Monday.
Nonetheless, Celeres said that the potential 64.5 million metric ton crop remained marginally behind schedule.
A survey showed 56% of the crop had reached or passed the flowering phase as of January 15, behind the 69% registered at the same stage last year and the five-year average of 71%.
Across Brazil, only 7% of the crop had reached the pod-filling stage through January 15, well behind the 18% at the same period in 2004 and the five-year average of 15%, Celeres said.
The consultancy also said that general climatic conditions have been favorable, with the exception of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, where a drought has slowed the progress of the crop.
The crop is most advanced in Parana, the second-largest producer, where 11% had reached pod-filling; followed by Mato Grosso state, where 10% had reached pod-filling; and Goias, where 8% had reached that stage.
Some 99% of the crop reached or passed through the vegetative development phase as of January 15, in line with the five-year average, but behind last year, when 100% of the country's crop had reached this stage.
Despite the favorable outlook for the soybean crop, Celeres expressed its concern about the sale of the upcoming crop. Only 25% of the crop had been sold though January 14, well behind the five-year average of 39% and the 52% which had been sold at the same period of 2004.
Celeres said that producers could feel compelled to sell their crop as soon as it is harvested, prompting prices to continue to decline.
Celeres also added that margins will decline because costs are 17% higher this season due to increased need for fungicides because of the prevalence of Asian Soy Rust and because of higher fertilizer and seed prices.
Brazil is the world's second-largest producer and exporter of soy.
