January 17, 2011
USDA increases projection for soy price
USDA'S soy price increased 25 cents a bushel for the 2010 forecast on the agency's January supply-demand report, which had lowered projections in its December estimates for the quantities of US soy acres.
"Harvested acres were decreased by 200,000 acres," said Scott Stiles, Extension economist-risk management for the University of Arkansas division of agriculture. He further noted, "The national average yield was reduced by 0.4 bushels to 43.5 bushels per acre."
On January 12, total 2010 US soy production was forecast by USDA at 3.329 billion bushels.
"This was within the range of pre-report trade expectations, but somewhat lower than the average expectation of 3.373 billion bushels," said Stiles.
Expected soy domestic crush was lowered 10 million bushels and exports were unchanged at 1.59 billion bushels.
"Ending soy stocks for 2010-11 were reduced 25 million bushels and are now forecast at an extremely tight 140 million bushels," Stiles said. "This is lower than the average pre-report trade expectation of 156 million bushels."
The USDA production outlook was unchanged for Brazilian soy at 67.5 million tonnes, but the outlook for Argentina was lowered 1.5 million tonnes to 50.5 million tonnes due to high temperatures and drought over the last few months. World soy carryover was expected to decline from last year's 60.23 million tonnes to 58.28 million tonnes.
"The USDA's 2010 soy price forecast was increased 25 cents per bushel and is now expected to range from US$11.20 to US$12.20, with a mid-point of US$11.70," Stiles said. "This compares with the 2009 crop average price of US$9.59.
Closer to home, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) stated that the Arkansas average yield for 2010 was 35 bushels per acre. It was 37.5 bushels in 2009.
"No real surprise there with the heat. Fortunately, prices were better and helped offset the yield loss," said NASS.
As for other crops covered in the report, NASS said corn production totalled 12.4 billion bushels, down 5% from the record high, set last year. Corn yield in 2010 is estimated at 152.8 bushels per acre, 11.9 bushels below last year's record.
NASS estimates the 2010 all wheat production at 2.21 billion bushels, down less than 1% from 2009. The all wheat yield was a record high 46.4 bushels per acre, 1.9 bushels higher from 2009 and 1.5 bushels above the previous record, set in 2008.
