January 17, 2011

Heavy rains to pour on key point of Brazil soy crop

Brazil's centre-west soy regions are expecting widespread rainfall as the crop in the main producing region enters the critical pod-filling stage when regular moisture is essential, meteorologists said Wednesday (Jan 12).

Weather forecasters Somar Meteorologia said rains that have been strong in recent weeks in the equally important southern soy producing states will weaken toward the end of the week.

The two main southern soy producing states of No.2 grower Parana and No.3 Rio Grande do Sul hit December rainfall totals well above average levels. Parana exceeded its five-year average rainfall by 84% last month and Rio Grande do Sul surpassed its average by 53-133%.

Crops in Brazil's No.1 soy-producing state of Mato Grosso and Parana are most advanced with a handful of farms already initiating early harvest. Most fields in those states are entering the key pod filling stage when regular moisture is necessary for the crop to reach its full potential.

Analysts say that rains in January and early February will be the main factor going forward in defining the potential of the new crop's yields.

"Climatic instability is causing intense and widespread rainfall over the centre-west, with accumulations of over 130 millimetres in only five days over a good part of Goias, eastern Mato Grosso and northern and western Mato Grosso do Sul," Somar said.

Over the past week, crop forecasters have maintained their estimates of the approaching harvest at near record levels of around 67 million-68 million tonnes. They cite favourable rains in the past months as the reason for their optimism, despite the dry start to the early planting season.

In Somar's extended 10-day forecast, it said rain would intensify in Mato Grosso and No.4 soy state Goias from January 17 on with accumulations expected to surpass 130 mm.

Below is a table showing total rainfall in millimetres for the first 11 days of January and the five-year average for the full month for main soy producing states.