January 17, 2005

 

 

US Beef Production Raised; Cattle Prices Lowered

 

Projected total U.S. meat production for 2005 has been raised this month.  Beef production is raised as USDA's regulations on meat and ruminant imports from minimal-risk countries are expected to allow for the resumption of imports of under-30-month-old cattle from Canada effective March 7. 

 

As a result of the rule, imports of slaughter cattle under 30 months of age and feeder cattle are expected to lead to higher levels of slaughter and beef production.  Beef production for 2005 is projected at 26 billion pounds, 6 percent above last year and about 1.25 billion pounds above last month. 

 

The December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite relatively strong hog prices and prospects for moderating feed costs, producers are taking a cautious approach toward expansion.  Based on slight increases in recent and intended farrowings, projected growth in 2005 pork production is slowed from last month.  Poultry forecasts for 2005 are unchanged.

 

Meat production estimates for 2004 are adjusted to account for recent slaughter data.  Beef production forecasts are raised and chicken and turkey production forecasts are reduced.

 

Meat trade forecasts are little changed from last month.  Beef imports for 2004 are raised based on higher imports from Oceania.  Pork and broiler export estimates for 2004 are raised from last month.  Trade forecasts for 2005 are little changed.

 

Cattle price forecasts for 2005 are lowered from last month, reflecting larger supplies of cattle following resumption of imports from Canada.  Price forecasts are reduced as a result of expected large imports of under-30-month-old steers and heifers for immediate slaughter and later-year marketing of Canadian feeder cattle placed in U.S. feedlots after trade is resumed.  Hog price forecasts are lowered slightly from last month as large beef supplies are expected to pressure hog prices. 

 

Broiler and egg prices are unchanged from last month but continued tight supplies of turkey are expected to support higher first-half 2005 prices.

 

Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place, including the recently announced minimal risk rule.  Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes.

 

                Source: USDA/WASDE. 

             Source: USDA/WASDE. Released January 12th, 2004
  
 

           Source: USDA/WASDE. Released January 12, 2005.