January 16, 2008
Ukraine expects 2008 grain crop to drop 0.8 percent
Ukraine's leading UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy made a grain crop forecast revision on Tuesday (January 15, 2008); a dip of 0.8 percent from 38.5 million tonnes to 38.2 million tonnes.
Wheat crop forecast has been increased from 18 million tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes. UkrAgroConsult said the increase would come from the expansion of wheat sowing area from 6.79 million hectares to 7.07 million hectares.
Corn harvest forecast has been increased as well, from 6.8 million tonnes to 7.5 million tonnes.
The barley crop however is expected to be lower, dropping from 10.6 million tonnes to 9.46 million tonnes. The decrease comes from a cutback of barley sowing area - a total contrast to the wheat crop.
UkrAgroConsult said oilseeds will be mainly favoured, and many factors, especially export regulations, will influence the decision on what crop they will favour.
Grain crop was at 34.25 million tonnes in 2006, but was reduced to 29.29 million tonnes in 2007. Exports in the first half of the 2007/2008 season (July-June) were also banned by the government.
While analysts and traders believes that this season's grain balance will allow export of at least 5 million tonnes, the government forecast a maximum shipment of 4 million tonnes.
|
Ukraine 2008 grain crop forecast (January) | |||||
|
2007 |
2007 |
|
2008 |
2007 | |
|
Grain |
sown area |
Harvest area |
yield |
crop |
crop |
|
(ha) |
(ha) |
(t/ha) |
(tonnes) |
(tonnes) | |
|
Wheat total |
7,074,000 |
6,713,000 |
2.74 |
18,416,000 |
13,700,000 |
|
winter wheat |
6,659,000 |
6,305,000 |
2.78 |
17,534,000 |
12,870,000 |
|
|
|||||
|
spring wheat |
415,000 |
408,000 |
2.16 |
882,000 |
830,000 |
|
barley total |
4,586,000 |
4,402,000 |
2.15 |
9,463,000 |
6,150,000 |
|
winter barley |
852,000 |
730,000 |
2.39 |
1,742,000 |
900,000 |
|
spring barley |
3,734,000 |
3,672,000 |
2.1 |
7,721,000 |
5,250,000 |
|
| |||||
|
corn |
2,077,000 |
2,016,000 |
3.71 |
7,471,000 |
5,800,000 |
|
rye |
466,000 |
458,000 |
1.88 |
863,000 |
562,000 |
|
oats |
403,000 |
395,000 |
1.85 |
731,000 |
643,000 |
|
peas |
332,000 |
324,000 |
1.85 |
599,000 |
299,000 |
|
buck wheat |
344,000 |
334,000 |
0.93 |
312,000 |
240,000 |
|
rice |
22,000 |
22,000 |
4.55 |
100,000 |
96,000 |
|
millet |
125,000 |
121,000 |
1.2 |
145,000 |
91,000 |
|
other |
108,000 |
104,000 |
1.08 |
112,000 |
120,000 |
|
Total grain |
15,537,000 |
14,889,000 |
2.57 |
38,212,000 |
27,700,000 |
