January 15, 2009

World corn trade in 2008-09 is projected down 2.7 million tonnes this month to 77.9 million, as the market quiets down.

Mexico is expected to import 8 million tonnes of corn in 2008-09, down 1 million this month, as higher production and increased sorghum imports reduced the need for corn.

Import prospects are also lowered for some countries as weak macro-economies cut demand prospects.

Colombia is seen to import 2.8 million tonnes, down 0.5 million tonnes, while Egypt's corn imports are lowered 0.3 million tonnes. Imports are reduced 0.2 million tonnes each for Guatemala, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan; and by lesser amounts for Turkey, Malaysia, and Russia.

Corn exports have been reduced for Argentina, India and the US. Argentina's 2008-09 exports are lowered 1 million tonnes to 9 million tonnes due to reduced production prospects, which are down 1.5 million tonnes to 9 million tonnes. However, Argentina's sorghum export prospects are increased 0.2 million tonnes to 0.7 million tonnes based on sales to nearby countries.

India's corn exports are slashed 0.75 million tonnes this month to 0.25 million, as domestic corn prices are too high to support large shipments.

US 2008-09 (Oct - Sept) corn exports are projected down 1 million tonnes this month to 45 million tonnes, and down 50 million bushels to 1.75 billion bushels on the local marketing year (Sept - Aug) due to the slow pace of sales and shipments to date. With prospects for larger US stocks, there is less incentive this year for importers to purchase ahead for deferred delivery in order to ensure their corn supply.