January 15, 2008

Brazil seen harvesting 59.1 million tonnes of soy in 07-08  

Brazil should harvest 59.1 million  tonnes of soy in the 2007-08 crop, agribusiness consultancy Celeres said on Monday (January 14, 2008).

The number is 5.1 percent lower than a previous estimate, which had the crop well over 60 million tonnes.

"With the end of the planting season upon us, we have come to the conclusion that this crop will be smaller than our last estimate," wrote analysts Anderson Galvao Gomes and Leonardo Sologuren of Celeres. Both cited high corn prices as the reason, with Brazilian soy and corn growers opting a bit more for corn than Celeres had initially projected.

Their estimate is now similar to the official government estimate of around 58.2 million tonnes, published Jan. 8.

Moreover, Celeres estimated planted area at 21.4 million hectares, up just 2.7 percent from the year ago period. Celeres had initially expected planted area to increase by nearly 10 percent. The planted area forecast is now in line with the government estimate.

Productivity per hectare is put at 2,761 kilograms of soy, down 2.3 percent from the 2006-07 season.

Celeres said yields would be lower due to sporadic rainfall in parts of many soy producing regions, and competition from other crops, notably corn, has farmers planting soy on less fertile lands.

Brazil produced 58.9 million tonnes of soy in the 2006-07 season, with yields of around 2,828 kilograms per hectares, according to Celeres.

Brazil is the No. 2 soy producer behind the US.