January 15, 2007

 

Brazil's 2007/08 soy crush at 28.2 million tonnes

 

 

The Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove, put the market year 2007/08 soy crush estimate at 28.2 million tonnes on Friday (Jan 12), compared with 27.8 million tonnes in its Nov 30 report.

 

Although the estimate has risen along with national soy crop estimates, this will be the lowest soy crush since 2003/04 when 27.8 million tonnes were crushed for soymeal and soyoil.

 

Abiove expects Brazil to harvest 55.8 million tonnes in this current harvest, to be sold between February and January 2008.

 

Industrial purchases of soybeans from February to November were put at 24.2 million tonnes compared to 28.3 million tonnes over the same period in 2005. Most of the decline stems from a tough 2006 season from March to June. In June, the government created a subsidy for soybeans that facilitated trade and purchases increased in comparison to the same months in 2005.

 

November purchasing volume was 688,000 tonnes, greater than Nov 2005 volume, but one of the lowest since 1998 when 660,000 tonnes of soybeans were purchased by local soy crushers.

 

 

Soy export volume estimates

 

Abiove raised its soy export estimate for market year 2007/08 to 25.5 million tonnes compared with 25 million tonnes in the Nov 30 report, and up from the 24.7 million tonnes Abiove expects to have been exported in market year 2006/07.

 

Roughly 23.7 million tonnes of soybeans have already been shipped between February and November, so it is likely Brazil will continue breaking export records for soy. The last record was market year 2005/06 when 22.4 million tonnes of soybeans were exported.

According to Abiove, Brazil exported 420,000 tonnes of soybeans in November, up from 339,000 tonnes in October, but down from the 735,000 tonnes exported in Nov 2005. The number does not include non-Abiove members. Government statistics put November exports at 998,000 tonnes, down from October's exports of 1.6 million and November 2005 exports of 1.3 million tonnes.

 

Soymeal export targets for market year 2007/08 remain at 11.8 million tonnes compared with 12.5 million tonnes in market year 2006/07.

 

Roughly 9.3 million tonnes of soymeal have been shipped between February and November.

 

Soy oil exports for 2007/08 are expected to decline substantially to 1.8 million tonnes compared to an estimated 2.3 million tonnes expected in market year 2006/07. Abiove's latest estimate is 500,000 tonnes greater than the Nov 30 estimate, however.

 

Soy oil exports between February and November were put at 2.03 million tonnes.

 

 

Consumption and production

 

Soymeal consumption estimates for 2007/8 were put at 10 million tonnes compared with 9.8 million in the Nov 30 estimate and 9.7 million tonnes in market year 2006/07.

 

The soyoil consumption estimate remained at 3.5 million tonnes, or 300,000 tonnes greater than market year 2006/07 consumption. Soy oil consumption is rising slightly because of its new use in biodiesel mixes.

 

 

Soy stocks

 

Abiove said soy crushers have roughly 3.8 million tonnes of soybeans in stock as of November. Last year at this time 3 million tonnes of soybeans were stored in industry warehouses.

 

Soymeal stocks are currently put at 911,000 tonnes, the lowest in three years, and soyoil stocks are put at 265,000 tonnes, another three-year low.

 

Brazil is the world's second-largest producer of soybeans, following the US.

 

Abiove said its estimate represents roughly 87 percent to 89 percent of the industry total.