January 14, 2004

Projected Global Oilseed Production Down In January

Projected global oilseed production fell slightly to 344.2 million tons in January, or 0.2% from last month's estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" report.

Declines in production of 725,000 tons for soybeans and 244,000 tons for sunflowerseed accounted for most of the change, and more than offset a rise in peanut production of 210,000 tons.

The fall in soybean production is largely attributed to a decline in the U.S. yield to 33.4 bushels per acre, the lowest since 1993/94, the press release said.

The decline in sunflowerseed production is mostly due to dry weather in Argentina.  The expected increase in peanut production is due mostly to ideal growing conditions in India.

Brazilian soybean exports rose by 400,000 tons, while U.S. exports rose 270,000 tons.  Projected soybean imports by China rose 1 million tons, more than offsetting a fall for the EU of 300,000 tons, and a decrease of Bolivian imports of 110,000 tons. The decline in global oilseed production, along with the increase in exports, is leading to tighter ending stocks of major oilseeds.

World oilseed stocks are projected to be much tighter at the end of 2003/04 than they were at the end of 2002/03. The latest projections place 2003/04 ending stocks at 39.8 million tons, 2.8 million tons lower than estimated 2002/03 ending stocks, the press release said.

Global soybean meal production is expected to rise 143,000 tons from last Month's estimate. Tight domestic supplies of U.S. soybeans caused by lower production and high early season exports have reduced crush and lowered soybean meal export prospects by 226,000 tons, while imports are expected to rise 123,000 tons. The EU is expected to raise imports of soybean meal by 300,000 tons, while Chinese imports of soybean meal should decrease by 150,000 tons from last month's estimate.

Vegetable oil production is expected to rise 6.4 million tons from last year to 100.7 million tons. Consumption is expected to increase 4.2 million tons to 99.9 million tons.  Ending stocks will rise 240,000 tons to 6.4 million tons. Most of the growth in the production of vegetable oils will be from rapeseed, soybean, peanut and sunflowerseed, up by 1.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons, 548,000 tons, and 453,000 tons, respectively.

Source: USDA