January 13, 2010

US oilseed output forecast up, record yields

US oilseed production for 2009-10 is estimated at 99.0 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from last month.

Soy production is estimated at a record 3.361 billion bushels, up 42 million bushels from last month based on higher yields. The soy yield is estimated at a record 44.0 bushels per acre.

Soy exports are raised 35 million bushels to a record 1.375 billion led by strong sales and shipments to China and several other markets including Taiwan, Thailand, Egypt, and Canada. US export sales have benefitted from tight competitor supplies resulting from last year's drought-reduced South American crop.

The projected soy crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.710 billion reflecting increased soymeal exports. Soy ending stocks are projected at 245 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month. Despite increased crush, soyoil production is reduced due to a lower extraction rate. With use unchanged, soyoil stocks are projected at 2.152 billion pounds, down 155 million pounds from last month.

The US season-average soy price range for 2009-10 is projected at US$8.90 to US$10.40 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range. Soyoil prices are forecast at 36-39 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range. Soymeal prices are projected at US$265 to US$315 per short ton, up US$5 on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2009-10 is projected at 431.6 million tonnes, up 3.0 million from last month.

Global soy production is projected at a record 253.4 million tonnes, up 3.1 million tonnes. Adding to increased US soy production, Brazil's soy crop is projected at a record 65 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes. The increase is mainly due to higher area reflecting favourable planting conditions and recent survey data from the Brazilian government.

Global oilseed trade for 2009-10 is raised 1 million tonnes this month primarily due to higher imports for China. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2009-10 are increased 2.2 million tonnes to 71.1 million tonnes with soy stocks for Brazil and China accounting for most of the change.