January 13, 2006

USDA raises 2005/06 soy ending stocks forecast

The USDA Thursday again raised its forecast for 2005/06 soybean ending stocks in the US. The carryout figure is now expected to rise by 100 million bushels to 505 million.

A month ago, the USDA raised its forecast for soybean ending stocks by 55 million bushels.

In its latest monthly supply and demand report, the USDA also raised its production forecast and lowered its export prediction.

Higher-than-expected yields and harvested area were behind the decision to raise its production forecast to 3.086 billion bushels, a 43-million-bushel increase.

"Soybean exports are reduced 70 million bushels to 950 million bushels primarily due to continued weak sales to (the EU) and China," USDA said. "Export competition from South America has been unusually strong in recent months, reflecting large available supplies from record 2004/05 soybean crops."

The USDA again this month raised its prediction for Brazilian 2005/06 soybean exports. Brazil is now forecast to export 25.42 million tonnes, up from 25 million tonnes predicted in December. The USDA prediction for Brazilian exports in November was 24 million tonnes.

The USDA in its January supply and demand report, also lowered its forecast for overall EU soybean imports to 15 million tonnes, down from a December forecast of 15.95 million tonnes.