January 13, 2005

Brazil Soybean Crop Estimated At Record 64.5 Million Tons

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean production is estimated to reach a record of 64.5 million tons, up 23% from last year's drought and rust- afflicted crop, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in report posted Wednesday on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.

Harvested area is estimated to be up from 1.5 million or 7 percent from last year to stand at a record 23.0 million hectares. Yields are forecast at a near-record 2.8 tons per hectare, but slightly below the 25-year trend.

Planting operations for the 2004/05 soybean crop were completed in a timely fashion in late December, ensuring that the crop was sown within the normal planting window. As reported by numerous official sources in October, despite falling international soybean prices and rising production costs, Brazilian farmers intend to expand soybean areas in virtually every state, the USDA noted.

Brazilian government forecast agencies now report that double-digit growth is expected in most Center-West states, while the traditional southern states will register more modest increases.  The area under soybean cultivation is thought to increase 6-7 percent in 2004/05, from the 16 percent area in 2003/04.

Rainfall since October has been generally favourable towards crop development, though in some areas the cumulative total has been below normal.  Crops are in the vegetative growth stage and generally more tolerant of periodic moisture stress than when in more advance growth cycles. 

The bulk of the national soybean crop is currently in excellent condition, though those growing in Rio Grande do Sul and Bahia have been experiencing drought-like conditions during December and early January. Fortunately for soybean producers in Rio Grande do Sul, plentiful rainfall fell on January 10, providing a welcome respite from previously stressful growing conditions. 

As the crop proceeds to the reproductive flowering growth stage, both Rio Grande do Sul and Bahia in particular need additional rainfall over the next six to eight weeks to support continued crop development and ensure above average crop yield prospects.

Asian soybean rust has been widely reported across Brazil. However, Brazilian government agencies and private agricultural consultants indicate that preventative fungicide applications have been successful so far in limiting crop damage and yield losses. 

Last year's heavy rains in February hampered anti-rust spraying in important producing states such as Mato Grosso and Goias, leading to severe crop losses. Most observers indicate that ample supplies of fungicide are available this year and farmers are better prepared to battle the disease.