January 13, 2004

Bumper Harvest For Brazil's 2003-04 Soy Crop

Brazil should see a bumper soy crop this season as favourable weather fostered good development of the 2003-04 crop, local agricultural consultancy Celeres said Monday.

However, the figures indicated the potentially record Brazilian crop, pegged by Celeres at 59.4 million metric tons, remained marginally behind schedule.

A survey showed 46% of the crop had reached or passed the flowering phase as of Friday. That is slightly ahead of the 40% registered at the same stage of the weather-affected 2002-03 crop but behind the five-year average of 55%.

Across Brazil, some 7% of the crop had reached the pod-filling stage, slightly ahead of 4% in the same year-ago period and on a par with the five-year average of 7%.

The crop is most advanced in Mato Grosso, the main-producing state, where 11% had reached pod-filling, followed by Goias state, where 10% had reached pod-filling, and Parana, where 9% had reached that stage.

Some 98% of the crop reached or passed through the vegetative development phase as of Friday, slightly more than the 93% registered at the same point last year and 2 percentage points higher than the average for the past five years.

The outlook for the soybean crop continues favorable over the next week with more rain forecast. The exception is the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul where rains have been light over the last couple of days.

Celeres said Asian rust has infested the main producing states of Goias, Mato Grosso and Parana, which is causing concern among producers. However, the potential for crop damage is still impossible to estimate, it added.