January 12, 2009

 

A blanket of snow covering dormant winter wheat in the US Midwest and Plains should protect crops from a blast of severely cold weather next week, meteorologists said Friday (January 9).

 

"It looks like snow is going to be on the ground in just about all the Midwest by the time the cold air arrives," said John Dee, president of Global Weather Monitoring. "It doesn't look really ominous for the Plains."

 

Wheat needs only an inch or so of snow to insulate it from the cold in subzero temperatures, Dee said. Without adequate coverage, plants can suffer from a condition called winterkill that reduces yields.

 

A "big part" of hard red winter wheat country in the Plains will see temperatures fall into the single digits and teens, with the biggest chill expected Wednesday, said Drew Lerner, meteorologist for World Weather Inc. Most areas that are not covered with snow will receive a dusting of one to two inches early next week, he said.

 

Nebraska is most at risk for seeing uncovered wheat damaged by the cold, particularly in central and eastern areas, Lerner said. Dee agreed the state is "the biggest question mark" in forecasts for possible damage.

 

HRW wheat may be "temporarily affected" by subzero temperatures near eastern Nebraska, but "this should not immediately induce winterkill since it will not be sustained," private weather firm T-Storm Weather said in a forecast. HRW wheat is used to make bread.

 

In the Midwest, weather systems Monday and Tuesday will put down snow in exposed soft red winter wheat areas of central and southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, Dee said. Most of the northern Midwest already has snow on the ground, he said. SRW wheat is used to makes pastries and snack foods.

 

Some losses from winterkill occur every year, but it can be difficult to judge the extent of the damage until plants break dormancy in the spring. So far, winter wheat this year has faced a "normal to below-average" threat from winterkill, compared to previous years, Lerner said.

 

To test for winterkill damage before spring, producers can dig up a few plants, put them in pots, and bring them inside to warm up, said Jim Shroyer, Kansas State University State Extension agronomist. If plants do not respond to the warmer conditions, they may have suffered winterkill injury, he said.

 

Worries about the potential for yield losses surfaced this week ahead of the release of a government report that's expected to show a decline in winter wheat plantings for 2009.

 

The average of analysts' estimates for all winter wheat seedings is 44.178 million acres, down from 46.181 million in 2008, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 11 analysts. The biggest decline is expected in SRW wheat acres due to weak cash prices and the Midwest's delayed soy and corn harvest.

 

The average of analysts' estimates for SRW wheat acres is 9.381 million acres, down from 11.2 million in 2008, according to a survey of 10 analysts. The average of analysts' estimates for HRW wheat seedings is 31.096 million acres, down from 31.22 million in 2008, the survey said.