January 12, 2009
ASA Weekly: US Nov-Dec soy exports decelerate; China buying slows down
China continues to account for the majority of US exports, but no longer a dominate buyer. Export inspections for December were an impressive 4.16 million tonnes, which was a record for that month. China continues to account for the vast majority of US exports, as shipments to other destinations have tended to be disappointing. The Census-based export forecast of 29.9 million tonnes looks to be on target, if not a tad low.
Argentina's president Cristina Fernandez has announced tax cuts to help the country's farm sector survive the global economic downturn, but kept levies on soy unchanged. The government has expanded previously announced tax reductions on corn and wheat exports, lowering rates slightly for small- and medium-sized farmers. The President said the idea is "to create strong incentives for the production and sowing of these two crops because they help to develop a sustainable agricultural program."
In early December, the Argentine government unveiled tax cuts on corn and wheat exports as part of a broader stimulus plan that Argentina launched to offset the adverse effects of the global economic crisis.
|
US & South America Soy/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
  |
United States |
|
| ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 | |
|
Soy |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
12,229 |
15,617 |
5,580 |
334 |
1,876 |
945 |
2,252 |
3,110 |
3,830 |
|
Production |
86,770 |
72,824 |
79,486 |
48,800 |
46,200 |
50,500 |
59,000 |
61,000 |
59,000 |
|
Imports |
246 |
269 |
191 |
2,336 |
3,025 |
2,700 |
108 |
100 |
150 |
|
Crush |
49,198 |
49,024 |
46,675 |
35,962 |
35,180 |
36,700 |
31,511 |
31,955 |
31,500 |
|
Exports |
30,428 |
31,598 |
28,576 |
12,132 |
13,400 |
14,900 |
23,805 |
25,450 |
25,000 |
|
Other |
4,002 |
2,508 |
4,422 |
1,500 |
1,576 |
1,600 |
2,934 |
2,975 |
3,025 |
|
Usage |
83,628 |
83,130 |
79,673 |
49,594 |
50,156 |
53,200 |
58,250 |
60,380 |
59,525 |
|
Carryout |
15,617 |
5,580 |
5,584 |
1,876 |
945 |
945 |
3,110 |
3,830 |
3,455 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
285 |
314 |
267 |
2,003 |
1,144 |
1,200 |
863 |
1,563 |
1,878 |
|
Production |
39,058 |
38,322 |
36,959 |
27,856 |
27,607 |
28,700 |
24,420 |
24,760 |
24,410 |
|
Domestic use |
31,184 |
30,078 |
29,484 |
619 |
634 |
660 |
11,520 |
12,180 |
12,600 |
|
Net Exports |
7,845 |
8,291 |
7,470 |
28,096 |
26,917 |
28,013 |
12,200 |
12,265 |
12,075 |
|
Usage |
39,029 |
38,369 |
36,954 |
28,715 |
27,551 |
28,673 |
23,720 |
24,445 |
24,675 |
|
Carryout |
314 |
267 |
272 |
1,144 |
1,200 |
1,227 |
1,563 |
1,878 |
1,613 |
|
Soy oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,365 |
1,399 |
1,126 |
487 |
310 |
301 |
300 |
341 |
406 |
|
Production |
9,294 |
9,329 |
8,868 |
6,917 |
6,709 |
7,017 |
6,050 |
6,130 |
6,040 |
|
Domestic use |
8,420 |
8,313 |
8,165 |
580 |
1,045 |
1,167 |
3,550 |
3,895 |
3,998 |
|
Net exports |
840 |
1,289 |
907 |
6,514 |
5,673 |
5,800 |
2,459 |
2,170 |
2,050 |
|
Usage |
9,260 |
9,602 |
9,072 |
7,094 |
6,718 |
6,967 |
6,009 |
6,065 |
6,048 |
|
Carryout |
1,399 |
1,126 |
922 |
310 |
301 |
351 |
341 |
406 |
398 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 01 January 2009 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. |
|
Exports |
|
Exports | ||||||
|
|
Soy |
444.40 |
8710.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.50 |
43.80 |
|
|
Soy |
6.60 |
59.90 |
|
|
Soymeal |
0.80 |
64.70 |
|
|
Soy |
55.60 |
422.60 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.60 |
9.40 |
|
|
Soy |
67.50 |
455.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.20 |
5.40 |
|
|
Soy |
57.50 |
803.80 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.50 |
0.70 |
|
|
Soy |
18.00 |
928.10 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.30 |
32.30 |
|
|
Soy |
2.90 |
271.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soy |
65.70 |
643.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soy |
0.50 |
13.90 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
|
Soymeal |
9.30 |
273.40 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding
Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.50 |
26.20 |
|
Soy |
6,576.20 |
14,305.60 |
529.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
41.60 |
398.60 |
|
Soymeal |
1,330.80 |
1,791.00 |
19.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
7.30 |
22.10 |
|
Soyoil |
94.20 |
116.60 |
3.50 |










