January 11, 2005

 

 

Brazilian Consultancy Lowers Estimate For Brazil 2004-05 Soy Crop 

 

Brazilian agricultural consultancy Celeres lowered its Brazilian soybean output estimate for 2004-05 to 62.7 million metric tons in its January report from 63.9 million tons the month before.

 

This new estimate is lower than the 64.5 million tons forecast by the US Department of Agriculture but higher than the 61.4 million tons predicted by the Agriculture Ministry in December.

 

The record crop is expected to be 23% larger than the 51.0 million tons produced last year.

 

The reduction was made following dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul state, which prevented farmers from sewing all the land they had planned. The current estimate places planted-area at 22.79 million hectares from 22.83 million hectares in the previous report.

 

Drought and fungus outbreaks had led the consultancy to lower its average yield forecast from 2,798 kg per hectare to 2,751 kg per hectare.

 

Also, the deadly Asian rust disease continues to spread across the soybean belt with 163 producing districts reportedly suffering from it. However, reports have indicated that preventative spraying has been successful so far and losses to the fungus may be cut this year, said Celeres.

 

The top-producing state of Mato Grosso is expected to produce 17.7 million tons this year, up 18% from 15.0 million tons last season.

 

Output in the No. 2 state, Parana, is expected to rise to 12.31 million tons, up 23% from 10.0 million tons last year.

 

Despite the adjustments to the supply estimates, crushing and export projections remain unchanged.

 

Brazil is expected to crush 33.5 million tons in the February 2005 ¡§C January 2006 marketing year, up 14% from 29.4 million last year.

 

Exports are seen rising to 26.0 million tons from 19.2 million tons last year.

 

Forward sales of 2004-05 soybeans remained slow during the holiday week.

 

Farmers have sold only 23% of potential output sold up to Jan. 7 compared with 51% at the same stage last year, said a Celeres soy analyst.

 

Brazil is the world's No. 2 producer and exporter of soybeans.