January 10, 2012

Analysts: Soy supply fall to boost US exports

Analysts are expecting global soy supply to drop amid a flat US soy inventory and reduced crop forecasts for South America, hence boosting exports of US soy eventually.

Little change is expected in stocks of US soy when the USDA issues its report next week on January harvests, while dry weather could cut crop forecasts for South America.

The crops in Argentina and southern Brazil have had problems due to the hot and dry weather in recent weeks, although most of the plants have not yet reached the stage of setting pods, which is key to growth.

Brazil is projected to surpass US as the largest exporter of soy in the 2011/12 period, with Argentina in the third place.

The average estimate from 14 analysts for the soy crop in Argentina in the period 2011/12 was 50.844 million tonnes. The USDA December estimate is 52.0 million tonnes.

For Brazil, the average estimate of soy production was 73.8 million tonnes, below the December figure of 75.0 million from the USDA.