January 10, 2007

 

Experts warn of milder bird flu flare ups this year

 

 

As bird flu outbreaks spreads in southern Vietnam after a year-long hiatus, experts are fearing it would resurface elsewhere in Asia.

 

Bird flu typically spreads as temperatures drop.

 

A year ago, the virus swept across countries in Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and into Europe.

 

The WHO said it is braced for a repeat of last year, said Peter Cordingley, WHO's spokesman for the Western Pacific region, adding that more problems are expected through the colder months of February and March.

 

Bird flu has caused the deaths or slaughter of 30,000 birds in Vietnam since December, after a one year absence. South Korea, which has not had the disease in three years, has also slaughtered more than 1 million birds since the virus erupted in November.

 

Egypt last month also reported three human deaths from the H5N1 virus, while Indonesia - the country hardest hit continues to report more human cases.

 

New fears also have surfaced in Hong Kong after a wild bird found dead tested positive for the virus on Saturday, and mainland China on Wednesday reported that the virus had infected a farmer.

 

Despite the developments, some experts expressed optimism that the situation is improving globally and that a repeat of last year's pattern is unlikely.

 

The number of outbreaks among poultry today "pales by comparison" to early 2004, when bird flu first emerged in Asia, said Juan Lubroth, animal health expert at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome.

 

Although there are outbreaks, the number of outbreaks and the chickens dying is not what it used to be, he said.

 

Even as the number of poultry outbreaks declined, reports of human deaths rose in 2006, killing 79 people.

 

Officials say the increase may be the result, in part, of better surveillance and reporting due to increased public awareness about bird flu.

 

The disease has claimed 157 lives worldwide since it began ravaging Asian poultry farms in late 2003.

 

As Vietnam prepares for next month's Lunar New Year holiday, known as Tet, health officials are worried human cases could follow during the busiest time for the movement of people and poultry.

 

Vietnam was hailed for successfully beating back the virus after starting a mass national poultry vaccination programme.

 

Even with all these measures, the virus cannot be easily eliminated if it has been widely spread in the environment in a half a year or a year, said Hans Troedsson, WHO representative in Vietnam, adding that prevention of bird flu would be a very long-term undertaking.