January 10, 2005

Canada's Hog Growth Seen To Fall As US Mulls Expansion

After a dynamic period of growth in the Canadian hog industry, it may be the US' turn to ratchet up its breeding herd, according to Chris Hurt, Purdue University agricultural economist.

Hurt expects that Canada will learn from the experiences of its beef industry and come to recognize the vulnerability of getting overly dependent upon exports. Canadian beef producers, who had exported more than half of their output, underwent a devastating crisis after foreign customers shunned their beef when BSE was confirmed in that country in May of 2003.

Countervailing and anti-dumping petitions against the Canadians by the US pork industry have also been shots across the bow, alerting them that US producers are willing to fight back, Hurt said.

Another factor is the strengthening of the Canadian dollar to the US dollar, making sales of Canadian hogs to the Americans less profitable. The Canadian dollar gained 23 percent against the US between 2002 and 2004, the economist said.